Forest restoration at risk: How clearing and burning in secondary vegetation threaten Brazilian targets

Executive summary

The Amazon has great potential for forest restoration, driven by its natural regeneration capacity. There are at least 5.7 million hectares of secondary vegetation that is six years old or older. However, fires and suppression threaten its permanence and, consequently, the fulfillment of national restoration goals (12 million hectares by 2030), in addition to aggravating climate risks (Guimarães et al., 2024; MMA, 2024a). Between 2014 and 2024, 2.7 million hectares were lost, with an estimated cost of between R$ 814 million and R$ 33 billion for recovery. To reverse this trend, it is recommended to: (1) monitor and inspect secondary vegetation in real time; (2) integrate fire risk into the National Policy for Integrated Fire Management; (3) implement local economic incentives, such as payments for environmental services; (4) designate unused public areas and land tenure gaps for conservation; (5) expand forest concessions on degraded public lands; and (6) prioritize environmental regularization in private areas with low agricultural potential. These measures strengthen governance, promote effective protection, and enable forest restoration.