Using a geographic information system for applied policy analysis: the case of logging in the eastern Amazon

Stone, S. 1998. Using a geographic information system for applied policy analysis: the case of logging in the Eastern Amazon. Ecological Economics, 27(1), 43-61.

Abstract

Using a geographic information system (GIS), a spatial and dynamic model of timber extraction was constructed and used to forecast industry growth in the Eastern Amazon over the next 10 years. Once calibrated, the model was used to project future harvests and the stock of forest resources over time under different price increase and policy scenarios. The results suggest a limited role for the state in influencing the pace of industrial growth, but a larger role in determining where extraction might occur. In particular, the state can exercise substantial influence over the spread of logging through the designation of indigenous, military and nature reserves as protected areas and through the decision of where to build and pave roads. Imposing new regulations, by contrast, may have unintended consequences such as constraining intensive extraction while promoting selective extraction in areas more difficult to enforce.